Economic thought at the European Commission and the creation of EMU (1957-1991)

To understand macroeconomic and monetary thought at the European Commission, two elements are crucial: firstly, the Rome Treaty, as it determined the mandate of the Commission and, secondly, the economic ideas in the different countries of the Community, as economic thought at the Commission was to a large extent a synthesis and compromise of the main schools of thought in the Community. The Rome Treaty transformed economic and legal rules in the countries of the Community. It comprised the creation of a common market, as well as several accompanying policies. Initially, economic thought at the Commission was to a large extent a synthesis of French and German ideas, with a certain predominance of French ideas. Later, Anglo-Saxon ideas would gain ground. At the beginning of the 1980s, the Commission’s analytical framework became basically medium-term oriented, with an important role for supplyside and structural elements and a more cautious approach towards discretionary stabilisation policies. This facilitated the process of European integration, also in the monetary area, as the consensus on stability oriented policies was a crucial condition for EMU. Trough time, the Commission has taken seriously its role as guardian of the Treaties and initiator of Community policies, also in the monetary area. The Commission always advocated a strengthening of economic policy coordination and monetary cooperation. In this paper, we first focus on the different schools which have been shaping economic thought at the Commission. This is followed by an analysis of the Rome Treaty, especially the monetary dimension. Thereafter we go into the EMU process and the initiatives of the Commission to further European monetary integration. We will consider three broad periods: the early decades, the 1970s, and the Maastricht process.

On the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy and financial fragility

Among the international policy institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known for its sensitivity to financial stability issues. Attention to the "macro-prudential" dimension of financial stability is very typical for the BIS. The Bank's macro-prudential approach first came to the fore in the 1986 Cross Report. It defined the macro-prudential domain as "the safety and soundness of the broad financial system and payments mechanism". In this paper, it will be argued that Alexandre Lamfalussy, who was at the BIS from 1976 to 1993, played a crucial role in shaping the Bank's approach to financial stability. Lamfalussy is renowned for taking a broad macroeconomic view and for focusing on the systemically important financial institutions, as the failure of one of these individual institutions would threaten the whole financial system. In Lamfalussy's view, there is thus very much an overlap between the micro- and macro-prudential dimensions of financial stability. This paper traces Lamfalussy's analysis of financial fragility and goes into the reasons for his sensitivity to it. Among the main elements involved were: a "Keynesian" Weltanschauung (that a market economy is not sufficiently self-correcting); the emphasis of Dupriez (his teacher in Louvain) on cycles; Lamfalussy's own experience as a commercial banker; BIS involvement in financial stability issues, especially the Latin American debt crisis of 1982-83; and research in the central banking community on financial innovations in the early 1980sLamfalussy, BIS, macro-prudential, systemic stability, financial fragility, risk

The spread of Keynesian economics : a comparison of the Belgian and Italian experiences

Keynesian economics dominated economic thought and macroeconomic policy-making in the 1950s and 1960s. However, the diffusion of Keynesian economics has been uneven. In this paper, we compare the spread of Keynesian economics in two continental European countries: Belgium and Italy. We focus on the post-World War II period, taking as the main message of Keynesian economics that the market is inherently unstable and that the government has a key role in economic life in steering effective demand. We further follow Coddington's distinction between "hydraulic", "disequilibrium" and "fundamentalist" Keynesianism. The study shows that Belgium and Italy were two countries were Keynesian economics gained ground only relatively late. The breakthrough of (hydraulic) Keynesianism came in areas which were close to the policy-making process: setting up national income accounts, the construction of macroeconomic models and correcting regional imbalances. The main difference between the two countries was the strong position of fundamentalist Keynesianism in the academic world in Italy, while in Belgium, disequilibrium Keynesianism was more influential.Keynesian economics, Belgium, Italy, macroeconomic policy-making

A century of macroeconomic and monetary thought at the National Bank of Belgium

"A century of macroeconomic and monetary thought at the National Bank of Belgium" traces the history of economic research at the National Bank of Belgium, from the early decades of the 20th century to its present functioning in the Eurosystem. The study also goes into the major economic policy debates, as well as the specific lines of macroeconomic and monetary thinking at the National Bank of Belgium. The focus is very much on the role of the Research Department in policymaking and its dialogue (and debates) with the academic communityNational Bank of Belgium, central banking, monetary theory, economic research

Macroeconomic and Monetary Thought at the European Commission in the 1960s

This paper discusses macroeconomic and monetary thought at the European Commission in the 1960s. It is based on an analysis of public documents, archival research, as well as a large scale programme of interviews. The paper starts with an overview of the economic philosophy of the Rome Treaties and developments in the 1960s, followed by a presentation of senior macroeconomic policy-makers at the Commission. Thereafter, the focus is on three crucial macroeconomic policy documents of the period: the project of a European Reserve Fund in 1958, the Commission's Action Programme for the Second Stage of 1962 and the Barre Memorandum of October 1969. The objectives of the Commission were both more defensive, preserving the 'acquis communautaire', especially avoiding the recourse to the safeguard clauses, as pro-active, stimulating the process of European integration. From an analytical point of view, the Commission focussed on the linkages and interdependencies between the Member States and the compatibility of policies. Gradually, a typical Commission analysis developed, based on a blending of German convergence ideas with the French medium-term approach. The paper also illustrates the ascension of the Commission as an actor in the monetary area, notwithstanding the rather limited provisions of the Rome Treaty.European Commission; treaty reform

The Regulation and Supervision of the Belgian Financial System (1830 - 2005)

This paper provides an overview of the regulation and supervision of the Belgian financial system from the creation of Belgium in 1830 to the early 21st century. After severe crises, the National Bank of Belgium was created in 1850. The Great Depression led to further reforms, increasing the role of the government, especially through the establishment of the Banking Commission. In the post-war period, reforms were driven by changes in the financial landscape, especially an increasing role for market forces. In line with the despecialisation process, the responsibilities of the Banking Commission were gradually extended, becoming, in 2004, the Banking, Finance and Insurance Commission. Moreover, at the turn of the millennium, the role of the NBB in financial stability matters was enhanced.Financial regulation; Financial supervision; Belgium

The process of European monetary integration : a comparison of the Belgian and Italian approaches

This paper analyses and compares the roles which Belgium and Italy have played in the process of European monetary integration. It discusses Belgian and Italian attitudes towards European integration and EMU, exchange rate policies, key concepts of the Belgian and Italian EMU strategies and the concrete contributions made by Belgium and Italy. Overall, these two countries played an important and pace-setting role in the process of European monetary integration. They developed several creative and diplomatic proposals. Moreover, Belgian and Italian policy-makers often acted as "policy entrepreneurs" and proved to be skilful negotiators. The main difference is that Belgium has been a constant and consistent "pace-setter" in monetary matters, from the preparation of the Hague Summit to the elaboration of the EMS, the monetary chapter in the Single European Act and the realisation of EMU, whereas Italy was mainly active in the 1980s. This assessment of the Belgian and Italian contributions does not challenge the decisive impact of the Franco-German axis, but illustrates that EMU was a multilateral process. Furthermore, the paper shows how important it was for a country to achieve a sound economic performance, especially a stable exchange rate, in order to have influence on the European monetary scene.European monetary integration, Belgium, Italy

France's and Italy's Policies on European Monetary Integration: a comparison of 'strong' and 'weak' states

This work compares France and Italy's policies on European monetary integration from the early 1970s arguing that the very different state structures determined the different policies pursued towards European monetary integration. France is a 'strong' state in terms of macroeconomic policy-making in that it was able to coordinate the activities of national institutions in order to produce coherent macroeconomic policies that were a crucial condition for taking part in European monetary integration. Italy, in contrast, is characterised by an 'archipelago' configuration with weak political capacity, which resulted in less coherent and effective macroeconomic policies, thus challenging its participation in European monetary agreements. State traditions also affected the views of the respective countries on European integration with French policy makers largely in favour of an intergovernmental approach and Italian policy makers supporting a supranational one. Overall, whereas it was politically problematic for France to accept the principles of a supranational Economic and Monetary Union as well as central bank independence, the main obstacle for Italy was to achieve economic convergence.EMU; Euro; economic performance; economic policy; France; Italy

Review essay: Central banking through the centuries. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 345

Anniversaries are occasions for remembrance and reflections on one’s history. Many central banks take the occasion of an anniversary to publish books on their history. In this essay we discuss five recent books on the history of central banking and monetary policy. In these volumes, the Great Financial Crisis and the way which it obliged central banks to reinvent themselves occupies an important place. Although this was certainly not the first time in the history of central banking, the magnitude of the modern episode is remarkable. As comes clearly to the fore in these volumes, there is now, also in the historiography of central banking, much more attention to the (shifting) balance between price stability and financial stability. The history of central banking is more perceived as one of an institution whose predominant concern varied between “normal” times and “extraordinary” times. So, central banks will have to remain vigilant, as one should expect financial crises to return. Moreover, the new world of central banking, with a greater responsibility of central banks for financial stability, will make life more complicated for central banks. It may have also consequences for central bank independence, as the modalities of the two mandates, price and financial stability, are not the same. Another aspect which comes to the fore in these volumes is the relationship between central banking and state formation. Historically, central banks have been embedded in processes of nation-building. By extending their network of branches across the country, or by being at a center of a system of liquidity provision, ultimately tied to the national currency, they played a key role in the shaping of “national economies”